Sweden is heading towards significant changes in its labour market, with future demand for skills shaped by demographic ageing, technological development, the green transition and changing public-service needs. Forecasts extending to 2040 offer a useful picture of where shortages could emerge and which qualifications may become increasingly valuable.

The central challenge is not simply whether Sweden will have enough workers. It is whether the country will have enough people with the right education, experience and specialist skills in the places where employers need them.

For students, jobseekers, businesses and policymakers, understanding these projections can help inform decisions today. However, a forecast is not a guarantee: education choices, migration, economic conditions and public policy can all change the outcome.

Healthcare faces the clearest long-term pressure

Healthcare stands out as the area where Sweden is expected to face some of its most substantial skills shortages by 2040.

Statistics Sweden (SCB) says demand is projected to exceed the available supply of people with several healthcare qualifications. The pressure is expected to affect regions across the country, although the scale will differ between counties.

The occupations and qualifications highlighted include:

• Registered nurses: A shortage of nurses with basic nursing qualifications is projected in every county.

• Specialist nurses: Shortages are expected across large parts of Sweden.

• Occupational therapists and physiotherapists: Supply may fall short of demand in many regions.

• Healthcare and social care workers: An ageing population is expected to increase the need for trained staff.

The underlying issue is demographic. Sweden will have more older people who need healthcare and support, while the workforce must also replace employees who retire. Training enough qualified professionals and retaining experienced staff will therefore be essential.

Vocational qualifications could become increasingly valuable

The forecasts also point to a widespread risk of shortages among people with upper-secondary vocational education.

According to SCB’s regional assessment, demand is expected to exceed supply in several vocational education groups in every county. The most exposed areas include:

These findings matter because labour-market discussions often focus on university degrees and highly specialised professions. However, Sweden’s future workforce needs also depend on people with practical technical skills, including those who maintain industrial equipment, install electrical systems and support digital infrastructure.

For young people choosing an upper-secondary programme, vocational education could offer a route into occupations where employers are likely to need qualified workers. Adults considering retraining may also find opportunities in these fields.

That does not mean every vocational course will lead automatically to a job. Local demand, work experience, certification requirements and the quality of training will remain important.

Regional differences will shape recruitment

One of the most useful aspects of the new assessment is its regional focus. Sweden’s labour market is not uniform, and a national forecast can conceal important differences between counties.

SCB’s Regional Trends and Forecasts 2025 examines the expected balance between labour supply and demand across all 21 counties. Its projections cover 45 education groups and are based on historical patterns.

Healthcare and vocational skills emerge as areas of concern across much of the country. However, the outlook for other professions varies depending on regional demand and the number of people expected to complete relevant education.

Northern Sweden may face particular teacher shortages

The report identifies a risk of shortages among several teacher groups, particularly in northern Sweden.

At national level, the projected supply and demand for several categories of teachers are expected to be relatively balanced. The picture is less favourable in some northern counties, where shortages could affect almost all teacher groups.

Vocational teachers are a particular concern. SCB expects a shortage both nationally and regionally, partly because the supply of qualified vocational teachers is projected to decline.

This could become a challenge for the education system itself: Sweden needs vocational training to prepare more people for occupations facing shortages, but it also needs enough qualified teachers to deliver that training.

Not every profession is forecast to face a shortage

The projections do not suggest that Sweden will experience shortages in every highly educated profession.

For example, SCB expects the overall labour-market balance for engineers and people with at least three years of higher education in data-related fields to remain relatively stable at national level and in many counties.

There may still be shortages in particular specialisations and in some regions, especially in eastern and northern Sweden. A broad occupational category can therefore hide differences between individual skills.

The report also identifies a risk of surplus supply in some fields.

People with higher education in journalism, humanities and the arts are projected to increase in number faster than demand for their qualifications. A similar risk is identified for some social science education groups.

This distinction is important for students. A university degree does not guarantee that demand will exceed supply in a particular profession. The subject studied, the region where someone wants to work and the ability to adapt to changing job requirements all matter.

What the forecasts mean for students, workers and employers

The projections can help people make better decisions, but they should be treated as guidance rather than a definitive list of future job opportunities.

For students: Look beyond the popularity of a course or the reputation of a university. Consider which qualifications employers may need, whether the profession offers opportunities in your preferred region and whether the training includes practical experience.

For people considering a career change: Technical vocational education and healthcare training deserve attention. Before enrolling, check entry requirements, course quality, certification rules and local employment prospects.

For employers: Long-term recruitment planning should include apprenticeships, cooperation with education providers, skills development and measures to retain existing employees. Waiting until a vacancy becomes difficult to fill may leave too little time to train or recruit suitable staff.

For policymakers and education providers: The projections underline the need to connect education planning more closely with regional labour-market needs. Increasing the number of training places alone will not solve shortages if too few students complete their courses or if qualified workers leave the profession.

Why a forecast to 2040 is not a guarantee

SCB’s projections are based on a baseline scenario using assumptions drawn from historical trends. They estimate how the supply and demand for people with different educational backgrounds could develop if relevant patterns continue.

They are not predictions of exactly how many vacancies will exist in 2040, nor do they guarantee that a particular qualification will lead to employment.

Several factors could change the outcome:

• Migration: International recruitment and the integration of people already living in Sweden can affect the available workforce.

• Education: Changes in admission numbers, completion rates and the attractiveness of different programmes can alter the supply of qualified workers.

• Technology: Automation and artificial intelligence may change the tasks performed in many occupations and the skills employers require.

• Economic development: Growth, investment and changes in public spending can influence demand for workers.

• Working conditions: Pay, workload, career development and job security affect whether people remain in shortage occupations.

The distinction between education-based forecasts and short-term recruitment data also matters. SCB’s longer-term projections assess the balance between people with particular educational backgrounds and labour-market demand. The Swedish Public Employment Service, meanwhile, publishes shorter-term occupational assessments through its Job Barometer.

Taken together, these sources provide different perspectives: one helps identify structural imbalances over time, while the other offers a more immediate view of employment opportunities.

Our assessment: Sweden needs to plan for skills, not just vacancies

The forecasts point to a challenge that cannot be solved through recruitment campaigns alone. Healthcare, technical occupations and vocational education all depend on a reliable pipeline of trained people, supported by working conditions that encourage them to stay.

In our view, the most significant lesson is the importance of matching education with real regional needs. Sweden should pay particular attention to healthcare training, industrial and technical vocational programmes, and the supply of qualified teachers.

For individuals, the findings are a reason to investigate employment prospects before committing to a long course of study or a career change. For employers and policymakers, they are an opportunity to act before projected shortages become more difficult to manage.

The 2040 horizon may seem distant, but decisions about education, recruitment and workforce development made today will help determine whether Sweden has the skills it needs in the years ahead.

Frequently asked questions

Which sectors are expected to face the biggest skills shortages in Sweden by 2040?

Healthcare and several upper-secondary vocational fields are among the areas facing the clearest projected shortages. These include industrial technology, healthcare and social care, electricity, automation, computer technology and communications technology.

Will Sweden need more nurses?

Yes. SCB projects a shortage of nurses with basic nursing qualifications in every county by 2040. Specialist nurses are also expected to be in short supply across large parts of the country.

Are engineers and IT professionals expected to be in short supply?

The overall outlook is relatively balanced nationally for engineers and people with at least three years of higher education in data-related fields. However, particular specialisations and some regions may still face shortages.

Will teachers be in demand in Sweden?

The outlook differs by teacher category and region. Several groups are expected to be relatively balanced nationally, but northern Sweden faces a risk of shortages in many teacher groups. Vocational teachers are expected to be in short supply nationally and regionally.

Where can people check which skills Sweden needs?

Statistics Sweden publishes long-term education and labour-market forecasts. The Swedish Public Employment Service provides shorter-term occupational assessments through its Job Barometer and its career information service.

Official Sources

1. Statistics Sweden (SCB) — Regional Trends and Forecasts 2025: Summary of the County Reports — Direct link
Regional projections covering 45 education groups and all 21 counties, published on 11 November 2026.

2. Statistics Sweden (SCB) — Regional Trends and Forecasts 2025: National Projections for 2040 — Direct link
National projections covering 46 education groups, published on 28 May 2026.

3. Statistics Sweden (SCB) — Trends and Forecasts for Education and Labour Market — Direct link
Official overview of SCB’s long-term education and labour-market forecasts.

4. Swedish Public Employment Service — Occupational and Skills Analyses — Direct link
Occupational assessments and the Job Barometer, which provides shorter-term labour-market outlooks.